Welcome back to another edition of Thursday’s Best and Worst Goalie Starts. It’s either your last week or second to last week of regular season fantasy hockey. Hopefully you’re gearing up for the playoffs, if not, maybe I can help you play the spoiler. Either way, with a slate of 12 NHL games tonight, you’ve got some goalie decisions to make. So turn off the TV, put the kids to bed, and put on some smooth jazz. It’s time to get to work. Let’s get to it.

Top Three Goalies

Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins

Coming in at the vaunted number one spot, is none other than Tristan Jarry (Fanrax 94%, Yahoo 87%) of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins opponent are the Sharks from San Jose. Now it’s true, just last week I told you to start Ilya Sorokin against the Sharks and let’s just say, it didn’t go well. Can lightning strike me, and you, the good readers two weeks in a row? Of course not. San Jose isn’t my jinx, that’s just silly talk. We are people of science, and the odds of San Jose sticking it to us for a second week in a row is exactly .000031 percent. So we play the odds and march forward. Jokes aside, it’s a great spot for the Penguins. They need a rebound game and this matchup couldn’t have come at a better time.

Jarry, for his part, isn’t the problem with the Pens this year. He’s been fairly reliable despite an occasional hiccup here or there. He posts a quality start .636 percent of the time, which believe it or not, is his career high. His previous high came in the 20-21 season and was .632. Don’t forget his career best six shutouts either. If you want to go the advanced stat route, of the potential 27 goalies I have for tonight, Jarry ranks third with 17.38 goals saved about expectation. Considering his competition, that’s incredibly impressive.

Don’t fear the Sharks. San Jose isn’t Jaws, and this isn’t the movies. Put Jarry in and rack up those goalie fantasy points.

Linus Ullmark – Boston Bruins

Coming in second in my top three, is Linus Ullmark (Fantrax 95%, Yahoo 95%) of the Boston Bruins. Ullmark and the Bruins play the Montreal Canadiens tonight, but let’s put a pin in that for a second. Linus, to his credit, is having another great year for Boston. Who among us saw his breakout coming when he came over from the Buffalo Sabres. I know I sure didn’t. With a QS percentage of .645, he’s one of the few goalies available tonight that can be called a sure thing. That quality start percentage looks even better when you add in the fact, he gives up an RBS less than 10% of the time. His advanced stats are just as good with 14.61 GSAx and a GSAA of 7.44. For clarification, Linus is top five in both categories among available goalies tonight. The craziest part, statistically speaking, this is probably his worst year in Boston, yet he’s still borderline elite. Now, let’s get back to his opponent, the Habs. Much like the Sharks, the Habs are another team that has burned us in the past. Regardless, the numbers say this is the right play, so we stick with it. Montreal has a porous defense, with a 2.92 xGA/60, they’re bottom four in the league. The Canadian’s play of late hasn’t been any better either. In their past 17 games they’ve posted the exact same number at xGA/60 and offensively, they dropped .08 points for xGF/60 of 2.43. All of these numbers point to an easy win for Boston.

If you’re one of the lucky ones with Linus on your roster, run, do not walk, to your fantasy app and start him.

Ilya Samsonov – Toronto Maple Leafs

Coming in at the good but not great spot of third is a contrarian pick, Ilya Samsonov (Fantrax 82%, Yahoo 76%). Don’t get me wrong, Sammy is having a very bad year. In fact, in 30 games he’s one RBS away from matching his career high. Not. Very. Good. Still, I’ve got a feeling he’s in the midst of a regression back to his statistical mean. We know he’s capable of being a very good goaltender. See his stats from the 19-20 and 22-23 seasons. The thing about Sammy, he tends to be as good as the defense in front of him. Thankfully Toronto is playing much better defensive hockey as of late. For the year, the Leaf’s have posted an xGA/60 number of 2.64. Not good, not bad, exactly average. In their last 17 games, the Leaf’s have posted an xGA/60 number of 2.46. That .18 difference makes the Leaf’s a top nine team defensively and that matters. During that 17 game span Sammy started 11 of those games and only lost two. During said 11 games, Sammy posted exactly one RBS against the Vegas Golden Knights. Which frankly is pretty remarkable when you consider that’s those 11 games are more than 33% of his starts this year.

Toronto’s opponent is the Philadelphia Flyers. Now most will see Philly’s current third place standing in the Metropolitan division and wonder if I’m out to lunch. I’m not. Despite their division standing, they’re an incredibly average team that plays great defense, scores minimally, and gets for the most part terrible goaltending. All of which is good for Sammy’s prospects tonight. To further hammer the point home, since December 29th, the Flyers have gone exactly 15-17.

Toronto is a -270 favorite to win tonight even without Mitch Marner. If you have Sammy riding your fantasy pine, take a chance, put him in. You will be rewarded.

Goalies to Avoid

Alex Lyon – Detroit Red Wings

First up on the goalies to avoid list, is Alex Lyon (Fantrax 59%, Yahoo 51%) of the Detroit Redwings. The Red Wings are not a trust worthy team and Lyon doesn’t leave me brimming with confidence either. Detroit is inept at creating offense at five on five with a xGF/60 of 2.34 and they aren’t much better at defense with a xGA/60 number of 2.78. Both xGF/60 and xGA/60 numbers rank among the worst in the league. Moving on to Alex, both his GSAA and his GSAx are barely above zero. Sure, he’s going up against the Arizona Coyotes and Detroit desperately needs a win, but with a QS percentage of 50% can you really trust him?

If you have a better option, go with it.

Connor Ingram – Arizona Coyotes

Last on the goalies to avoid list is Connor Ingram (Fantrax 70%, Yahoo 52%) of the Arizona Coyotes. Some might be surprised to see him make the list as he’s a darling of the analytics community. Yeah, that’s true, but from a fantasy perspective, I’m beginning to waiver. Connor averages an RBS every four games, which makes sense considering how bad the Yotes defense and penalty kill is. Their opponent, the Detroit Red Wings, unfortunately for Mr. Ingram, are power play merchants. It’s the only thing keeping the Wings afloat and in the playoff hunt. Combine those previous listed details with the fact that the Yotes give up more penalties than all but two teams and you can almost taste the disaster brewing in Mullett Arena.

There are better choices for your fantasy goalie crease.

Once again, if you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading and good luck tonight. As always, if you have any questions feel free to reach out on X at @Bobbybets1122.